The rich APG Finals are a race everyone wants to win when they head to the sales to purchase a yearling. I’ve been – and purchased – and am yet to make one of these major races so I’ll continue to head along to find the next Waikiki Beach, The Storm Inside or Soho Nolita.
Here is how I see tonight’s massive card playing out…
NSW Derby winner Patsbeachstorm disappointed punters last week but he’s still a very young and inexperienced horse already competing with seasoned campaigners. He will strip fitter for tonight but gate eight looms as a major hurdle. Santa Casa Beach topped David Moran’s three-year-old on his merits last week and draws to lead here. Iconic Major is a nice horse who’s won 50% of his starts whilst I fancy a couple of mares at huge prices for those who want to play at a price to kickstart the evening – Rockingwithsierra and It’s Beaujolais at 20/1 and 40/1 respectively.
My play – Tiny win bets Rockingwithsierra $21 and It’s Beaujolais $41.
Cover of Darkness is clearly a talented type with a Group 1 already to his name BUT the last time we saw him at the races he flat out refused to participate in the race. On that basis, along with the fact he’s fresh up and off the back row, I am taking him on with a few each way hopes. Justamollyarcher has been well backed to beat the favourite as it’s almost a certainty to be in front. Cyclone S Adams and Aldebaren Crescent are also nice value options.
My play – Each way plays Cyclone S Adams $7.50 and Aldebaren Crescent $8.
My old mate Mick Stanley has openly stated he thinks Drain The Swamp can lead and from there, he can win. Should that happen, Albs Two Chains becomes the threat whilst you cannot discount Group 1 winner Bondi Lockdown as well as Keayang Kamikaze at around 10/1.
My play – Win bet Drain The Swamp $5.
I’ll be heading to the kettle and making a Milo during this race. Not for me but good luck to those engaged.
Ripping Free For All race with NSW Derby winner Max Delight ready to rock according to driver Josh Aiken. I expect Glen Craven aboard Jilliby Chevy to get crossed or hand up meaning Code Bailey will be buried on the fence and effectively a non-winning chance. Very keen on Max Delight as a standout winning chance as well as the pegs-pegs-pegs trifecta with Max winning from Bailey from Chevy.
My play – Good win bet Max Delight $2.
Huge APG Group 1 for baby fillies with Emma Stewart boasting six runners, including all the hot chances. Fiamma, Playing Up and Irish Black Label are the winning hopes from my POV and at the price, I’m happy to nibble Irish Black Label as we’re getting the price because of the draw. Here’s hoping for some early speed and a jet black filly to go bang!
My play – Small win bet Irish Black Label $5.
The younger brother to Poster Boy looks every part the superstar and Beach Villa will need to be to ensure victory. He will need to overcome the inside back alley and circumnavigate the field to win. Lightning Dan is some hope but the stable say he’s a rascal whilst Khafaji was awesome on debut and must be kept safe in exotics and quaddies.
My play – Quinella Beach Villa and Khafaji.
Very even contest but the speed map lends me to think Act Now will be mighty hard to get past up the lane. Tasty Delight’s crew have been talking tough but I’m just not sure he can hold up. Soho Bollinger is a superb animal with great toughness but may be better suited to leading whilst Seb’s Choice and Better Isolate provide some value.
My play – Act Now win and best bet of the night $2.80.
How can we go past Tough Tilly!?! From a form perspective and feel-good POV with Tough Tilly providing so much good for EB Research and Tilly Wilkes. She’s the winner, we just need to locate the next few. Soho Almasi would give this a shake but is she at her best whilst Joanna and NSW Oaks champ Antonnia are strong hopes. Soho Broadway is also a monster price as a horse to fill out exotics.
My play – Place play on Soho Broadway $8 and Bettor Be Kept $5.
Dadndave is another exciting import from NZ for Team Gath and gets the gate to be winning again. Stable mate Explicit Castle will be hoping to trail all the way and get a look up the sprint lane whilst Itzamajor Surprise, Highway To Heaven and Mirakuru could bob up.
My play – Small each way play Itzamajor Surprise $13.
Honolua Bay has looked Grand Circuit level at times and vulnerable in other races. He gets a cushy draw here and should be winning. Yorkshire gets a draw where he can lead which would give him every possible whilst Major Assassin, Live On Broadway and Boy From Bondi are all capable.
My play – Small win Yorkshire $8 and exacta, Honolua Bay from Yorkshire.
Best Bet: R8 N2 Act Now $2.80
Best Value: R2 N2 Cyclone S Adams and R2 N11 Aldebaren Crescent $8
Best Roughie: R1 N4 Rockingwithsierra $21 and R1 N10 It’s Beaujolais $41